| All In Preflop Poker Odds |
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Monday, 09 January 2006 In poker tournaments, you will often see players letting their chip stack diminish as the blinds and antes begin to increase. Before they know it, they have too few chips to scare anyone out of the pot, so stealing the blinds and antes is out of the question. When they finally get some decent cards, they move all in and double up, only to find that they are still short-stacked so the process begins again. Finally, one of their all in maneuvers is foiled by the big blind holding a mere 8-9 suited.
The reason so many players are willing to donate all their chips to blinds and antes is their lack of understanding of preflop odds. They think their hands are much worse than they really are, so they are unwilling to push with a marginal hand. Let's take a look at some of the various scenarios you could face when making an all in move. Keep in mind, that the estimated odds assume you will see all 5 cards which is guaranteed when moving all in preflop. Also, in each case, the exact odds will vary depending on suited hole cards, the suits of your opponents cards, and any straight possibilities your cards offer.
One Overcard vs. Pocket Pair Watching poker on TV, you will often good plays contemplating calling an all in bet with a marginal hand such as A-5 offsuit or K-10. They are taking into account the amount of money in the pot and the amount they would need to risk to make the call. Even if they only have one overcard, their odds of winning are still roughly 2.3 to 1 against. If calling the all in will give them better odds than that, you can be confident they will make the call. Ace with poor kicker vs. Ace with good kicker The odds of winning (or not losing) with the poor kicker are approximately the same as winning with a single overcard. In each case, you have 3 good outs (pairing your poor kicker or pairing your overcard) to take the lead in the hand. In this type of hand, "not losing" comes into play more frequently since there is an increased chance of a split pot. Two Overcards vs. Pocket Pair Known as the classic "coin flip." It's called that because the odds are nearly 50/50. But, in reality, the Pocket Pair is almost always a slight favorite. Players often think that AK suited is your best hand when facing a smaller pocket pair. Actually, J-10 offers more straight possibilities than A-K and is a slight favorite against Pocket 7s and lower. Two Undercards vs. Two Overcards This situation isn't as bad as you would think. Actually, you are better off with two "live" undercards than you would be sharing a high card. For example, against a hand like A-K, A-J would be about a 2.5 to 1 underdog. Whereas, 6-4 is less than a 2 to 1 underdog when up against A-K. Pocket Pair vs. Pocket Pair In hands where you have a single overcard or hands where you share a card, you have 3 good outs to take the lead. When you have a smaller Pocket Pair, your number of good outs is reduced to 2. When you flip the cards and see a smaller Pocket Pair, you will be about a 4 to 1 underdog to lose the hand. And as previously stated, even if you see 2 random overcards, you are only a "coin flip" away from the door. This is why you may want to throw away a small pocket pair against a big bet or all in move. At best, you will have a 50/50 chance of winning. At worst, you are looking at 80/20. Two Undercards vs. Pocket Pair The granddaddy of painful poker situations. Depending on straight and flush possibilities, you can be anything from a 4 to 1 underdog to about a 6.5 to 1 underdog. It's time to stand and stretch and get your coat ready for a quick exit. If your miracle hits, be prepared to hear some obscenities from your opponent. |
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