Poker, as many players would agree, is more of a mind game rather a game of luck. Admittedly, your game is highly influenced by the cards you’re dealt with. However, deciding on your game plan is done not on the basis of cards alone. It is best accomplished only after considering the odds.

To be successful in the game, a poker player should be able to see whether the odds are on his or her side or are swinging his opponents’ way. Take for example a post-flop situation. Given the cards on the board and your hole cards, what are the chances that your cards can beat everybody else’s hand? Furthermore, what are the chances that your opponents have a better hand than yours?

Calculating the Odds: Basic Math

Answering these questions require elementary math. For example, what are the chances of pulling out a spade from a standard deck of cards? You could readily do this by dividing the number of ideal outcomes by the number of possible outcomes. There are four suits in a deck of 52 cards. One of these four suits is spade, or 13 of the 52 cards are spades. Thus, the probability of drawing a spade from a full deck is 1/4or 25 %. This is the basic principle applicable in calculating the odds.

Calculating the Odds: Simple Illustration

To illustrate, take a Texas Hold’em game. You have Js and Qs for hole cards. After the turn, the board reads 3sJd8s9d. Given your hole cards, you should identify your drawing possibilities. Your hand can become a straight if the river turns up a ten. It can become Jack trips with a Queen kicker, if the river reveals another Jack. If another spade comes out of the river, you can get a flush with a Queen high.

If you want to get a straight, the river should produce a 10 of any suit. If you are playing with 4 other people, there are still 38 cards on the deck. Assuming, for simplicity’s sake, that your opponents are not holding a 10, all four 10 cards are still in the deck. Thus, the probability of getting a 10 is 4/38 or around 10.5%.

Following the same reasoning and assuming once more that your opponents are not holding the cards you need to draw, the probability of getting a flush or a three of a kind is around 23.7% and 5.3%, respectively.

You could do the computations more accurately if you can read your opponents’ hand. Furthermore, your decisions ultimately rest on the odds that your opponent is holding your out card, your drawing odds (the probability that you will complete a hand) and the pot and implied pot odds (the rate of return on your bets if you continue playing).